I spent some time this afternoon analyzing the Postal Service’s year-to-date business, and the numbers aren’t good, to say the least. Mail revenue and volume are dropping far faster than the Postal Service expected at the beginning of the fiscal year â€” so postal officials could find themselves hundreds of million of dollars short of their projected $76.2 billion revenue this year.
Data and graphs are after the jump. But first I should note that these numbers are a little imprecise, because they’re based on data from the first two quarters of 2009 (the third quarter ended on June 30, but data isn’t available yet). So I’m taking half a year’s data and extrapolating it into a full year.
If anything, though, these numbers are optimistic. That’s because the Postal Service always does its best business of the year in the first quarter (the holiday season); that means volume and revenue are higher in the first half of the year.
Now, here are the data, shown as percentage changes from FY2008. So, for example, the Postal Service expected First-Class Mail revenue to drop by 1.3% this year; it has actually dropped by 6.4%.
The blue bars are the Postal Service’s projected changes; the red lines are the actual year-to-date changes.
Here’s the data in table form:
|Service Category||Actual Revenue||Projected Revenue||Actual Volume||Projected Volume|